Mexico Market Chatter, Mar. 19, Mar. 26, 2026

Markets

After 3 weeks in negative territory, the S&P / BMV IPC rebounded by 2.9% over the last week, fueled by less volatile international oil prices. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso lost 1.1% to close at MXN$17.94/USD; the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was down 15 bps to 9.19%.

The S&P / BMV IPC’s top weekly gainers were: ORBIA * (+9.5%), GCC * (+8.2%), and CEMEX CPO (+7.6%). On the other hand, the main weekly losers were: TLEVISA CPO (-2.1%), PEÑOLES * (-2.0%) and KOF UBL (-1.0%).

Listed companies

Walmart de México plans to invest approximately MXN$43 billion in Mexico and Central America in 2026, representing a 10% YoY increase, with 42% allocated to existing store remodels and omnichannel capabilities, 26% to new store openings with Bodega Aurrerá as the main growth vehicle (new stores are expect to contribute between 1.5-1.7% to total revenues), 24% to supply chain expansion and automation including new distribution centers in Guanajuato and Tlaxcala by 2027, and 8% to technology initiatives focused on data, digital platforms and productivity. The company also outlined its shareholder return proposal, including an ordinary dividend of MXN$1.16/share to be paid in two installments in November and December 2026, a share buyback program of up to MXN$10 billion, and a potential extraordinary dividend subject to unused buyback funds, all to be approved at the April 20^th, 2026 shareholders’ meeting.

Fibra Mty disclosed the indicative terms of a potential tender offer for up to 100% of Fibra Macquarie’s CBFIs, structured as a mix of cash and Fibra Mty certificates. The proposal is based on a 3.0x exchange ratio, equivalent to a price of MXN$43.18/CBFI and total consideration of MXN$34.4 billion; it includes a partial cash alternative of MXN$41.00/CBFI capped at MXN$8.294 billion or ~25% of outstanding certificates. The transaction is subject to due diligence, corporate and regulatory approvals, and market conditions, and remains non-binding.

GAP will invest MXN$22 billion in its Guadalajara airport over the in 2026-2029 period, including MXN$4.9 billion in 2026, with the master plan incorporating a new 87,000-square-meter terminal. On the other hand, GAP paid MXN$1.12 billion in GAP 23L domestic bonds with a new 12-month credit line with Scotiabank Inverlat amounting to MXN$1.12 billion, which carries an interest rate equivalent to the TIIE Funding Rate plus 44-bps, with monthly interest payments and principal due at maturity.

Arca Continental announced an MXN$18.5 billion Capex plan for 2026 of which 50% will be invested in Mexico and the rest in the US and South America. Resources will be allocated to operational efficiency, machinery and infrastructure, sales equipment, digital tools and new beverage categories. Management also highlighted that 2025 EBITDA exceeded MXN$50.0 billion for the first time and consolidated net sales reached MXN$247.9 billion, up 4.6% YoY.

AMX’s Claro Brasil, has entered into an agreement to acquire approximately 73% of the shares of Desktop, S.A., the largest FTTH oprator in the state of São Paulo with 1.2 million users and 58,000 kms of fiber optics network. AMX valued Desktop at an enterprise value of approximately R$4.0 billion, with an implied equity value (after net debt) of R$2.4 billion, equivalent to roughly R$20.82 per share, representing a 44.5% premium to Desktop’s prior closing price. Closing remains subject to customary conditions, including approvals from CADE and ANATEL. Upon completion, Claro is required to launch a tender offer for the remaining shares at no less than the acquisition price.

Cemex’s shareholders approved a US$500 million share buy-back reserve over the next 12 months. The company also reported an improvement in its MSCI ESG rating to AAA, from A.

Grupo Carso has completed the acquisition of an additional 30.10% of the share capital of Talos Energy Inc.’s Mexican subsidiary, Talos México, which holds a 17.4% stake in the Zama oil field, after obtaining the required corporate and regulatory approvals in Mexico.

Esentia’s Board of Directors approved the Final Investment Decision (FID) for Phase II of its expansion plan. The project will add approximately 295 MMcf/d of incremental capacity, representing a ~22% increase in its gas transportation system capacity. Phase II includes the installation of two new turbo-compression units at the San Juan (Chihuahua) and Aguascalientes compression stations, alongside additional system upgrades led by Siemens Energy. Construction is already underway in Aguascalientes.

Femsa completed its previously announced accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program, buying approximately 2.5 million ADSs at an average price of USD 104.41 per ADS, for a total of US$260 million, with final settlement scheduled for March 23, 24, 2026. The company also entered into a new ASR with a different US financial institution for up to US$300 million, including an initial delivery of 591,774 ADSs in March 2026. The final number of shares repurchased will depend on the volume-weighted average price during the program, with completion expected by 2Q26. Femsa is cutting jobs at Spin, its fintech unit, after the group’s push to build a broader financial-services platform lost traction, according to Bloomberg. The publication framed the move as a scaling-back of Femsa’s fintech ambitions amid a more competitive.

Fibra Next announced that Next Properties has successfully completed the acquisition of the “Calopark” industrial asset located in Cancún, Quintana Roo, from an unrelated third party. The acquisition price amounted to around MXN$710 million, equivalent to an approximate cap rate of 11%. The implied acquisition value was approximately US$822 per m², considering an FX rate of MXN$17.50/USD. Calopark has a GLA) of around 50,000 m², 100% occupancy, a WALE of 4.57 years, and an estimated year-one NOI of approximately MXN$80 million. Approximately 18% of its revenue is denominated in US dollars and 82% in Mexican pesos. Additionally, the asset has an expansion area with development potential of approximately 7,250 m² of additional GLA.

Fitch downgraded Orbia Advance Corporation’s credit ratings to BB+ from BBB-, removing its investment-grade status due to weaker operating performance and higher leverage amid oversupply in PVC and soft demand in key markets. The outlook was maintained at stable, while the local rating was lowered to AA(mex) from AA+(mex). The downgrade follows a recent cut by Moody’s, which also cited slower-than-expected recovery and elevated leverage.

Ollamani appointed Ferran Reverter as CEO of its subsidiary, Controladora Deportiva Águilas, reporting to the subsidiary’s Board of Directors. His mandate will be to drive the growth and transformation of Club América and Estadio Banorte. Mr. Reverter has over two decades of experience managing international businesses, with a profile focused on strategic leadership, organizational transformation, and growth in competitive environments.

Fibra Macquarie will propose extending its buyback program by MXN$1.0 billion in its upcoming holders meeting.

Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19 announced the cancellation of 31.33 million treasury shares, representing 7.6% of total shares outstanding.

Grupo Posadas will open a new Live Aqua property in Mexico City with just under 100 rooms, as part of the broader expansion of hotel supply in premium urban and beach destinations.

Aeroméxico’s CEO Andrés Conesa acquired 20,000 ADS at an average price of US$12.91 on March 19th. Andrés Borrego, Board Director, also acquired 8,000 ADS and Aaron Murray, commercial Director, another 6,336.

Other companies

President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that the government plans to eliminate most of Pemex subsidiaries, except for PMI Comercio Internacional and Fertinal. The measure points to a further simplification of Pemex’s corporate structure under the current administration. She is also considering a possible alliance between Pemex and Petrobras as part of efforts to raise crude output.

A federal judge declared the bankruptcy of Typhoon Offshore, an oil services company owned by Ricardo Salinas Pliego, according to the Reforma newspaper. Typhoon signed a contract with Pemex to perform works on offshore wells in May 2019 and ceased operations and activities of its vessels after Pemex failed to pay it for 16 months, during which time it accumulated a US$960 million debt.

Finsa acquired an industrial portfolio in Hidalgo for US$434 million, M2 across three fully leased Class AAA buildings currently occupied by Mercado Libre.

Unilever will invest MXN$9.4 billion to expand two of its plants located in the State of Mexico, as part of the “Plan México”. These expansions are part of the previously announced MXN$30 billion investment program over a three-year period until 2028.

Nestlé will invest US$455 million in the State of Mexico of which US$275 million will be aimed at expanding production capacity at its Toluca, Cuautitlán Izcalli and Tepozotlán plants, and the remainder US$180 million at building a new distribution center in the Zumpango municipality.

Holcim México will invest MXN$356 million through 2027 in infrastructure and water resilience projects, focused on environmental efficiency and operational sustainability.

The Home Depot México announced a MXN$4.79 billion Capex plan for 2026 (+25% YoY), including the opening of three new stores to reach 145 locations, alongside investments in logistics and digital capabilities.

The US Department of Energy granted a 6-month extension to Sempra Infrastructure to export natural gas to Asia from its Energía Costa Azul LNG project, located in the city of Ensenada. The facility will likely begin operations in the near term.

US discount retailer Dollar General will open 10 stores in Mexico in 2026 after opening eight in 2025. The company currently operates 16 stores in the country.

Brazil’s Natura plans to open 20 points of sale in Mexico during 2026, including 10 company-owned stores and 10 franchises, to reach a total of 34 locations in the country.

Total Play Telecomunicaciones issued MXN$1 billion in a one-year bond on BIVA. The instrument will carry an interest rate of TIIE rate plus 2.25 percentage points. The company will use proceeds to refinance another outstanding bond of the same amount.

Grupo Financiero Mifel has made two proposals for the acquisition of a brokerage license, according to a Bloomberg en Línea interview with its Chairman and CEO Daniel Becker. He expects to have the results over the next few weeks.

Mexican BNPL fintech Aplazo increased its credit facility with BBVA Spark by 40% to US$50 million. The additional funding will support expansion of its consumer financing platform.

Adyen and Mercado Pago have enabled Tap to Pay technology for iPhone devices in Mexico, with the intention of expanding the use of contactless payments in the country.

BIVA made a strategic alliance with HollyMontt, a digital investment platform, aimed at strengthening access to alternative and private market investments for institutional and high-net-worth investors in Mexico.

Grupo BMV launched “MyIndeval,” a digital platform that allows investors and market participants to check information related to securities custody, movements and balances held at Indeval.

Uber reached an alliance with MXtaxi to incorporate concessioned taxi drivers into its platform ahead of the 2026 World Cup. The company also reaffirmed continuity of operations at AICM under existing judicial protection.

Economic

Banco de México unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 bps to 6.75% (consensus expected the reduction to take place in May). Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, José Gabriel Cuadra García and Omar Mejía Castelazo voted in favor of the rate adjustment, while Galia Borja Gómez and Jonathan Heath voted to keep the rate unchanged. There were minor increases in the expected headline inflation and core inflation rates for the first three quarters of the current year, but the projections for the end of the year remained at 3.5% (headline) and 3.4% (core). Going forward, the committee will evaluate the pertinence and the moment for a further interest rate adjustment. It will take into account the effects of all determinants of inflation and will remain attentive to developments in external conditions.

Mexico’s headline inflation was 0.62% in the first half of March, substantially above the latest Citi Mexico Expectations Survey consensus projection of 0.33%. Core inflation increased 0.22%, in line with the consensus forecast of 0.22%, driven by a 0.20% increase in merchandise prices and a 0.25% rise in services. The bi-weekly non-core inflation rate rose 1.96%, mainly reflecting an 8.34% increase in fruits. On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 4.63% and core inflation at 4.46%.

The IGAE declined 0.9% MoM in January 2026 based on seasonally adjusted data, below the consensus estimate of -0.4%, the weakest monthly performance since December 2024, according to INEGI. Primary activities fell -3.7%, secondary activities 1.1% and tertiary activities -0.6%. On an annual basis and according to original data, IGAE declined 0.3% YoY, below the 1.6% consensus expectation, mainly because of a 1.1% decline in secondary activities which was partially mitigated by a 1.6% increase in primary activities and a 0.1% rise in tertiary activities.

Aggregate supply and demand rose by 2.4% QoQ in 4Q25 based on seasonally adjusted data. On the demand side, the main drivers were exports +1.1% QoQ, private consumption +1.0% QoQ, government consumption +0.8% QoQ and gross fixed investment +0.7% QoQ. Aggregate supply and demand increased 4.5% YoY in 4Q25 according to original data. Demand was led by private consumption +4.0% YoY and exports +2.1% YoY, while gross fixed investment remained weak at -3.7% YoY.

ANTAD SSS increased by 1.1% YoY February 2026, with growth of 1.1% in self-service, -0.7% in department stores, and 3.4% in specialized retail. Total sales rose 3.1% YoY, supported by expansions of 3.1% in self-service, -0.5% in department stores, and 6.3% in specialized retail.

Service sector revenues declined by 0.1% MoM in January 2026 (seasonally adjusted), following the -0.7% contraction in December, according to INEGI. Service revenues fell 0.5% YoY based on original data, extending the slowdown of prior months.

Retail sales increased by 0.2% MoM in January 2026 (seasonally adjusted), following the -0.1% contraction in December, according to INEGI. Retail sales rose 2.7% YoY based on original data, slowing down from the 4.0%, 4.4% range of previous months.

Construction activity increased by 0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in January 2026, slowing down against the previous two months, according to INEGI. Nevertheless, construction activity fell 1.6% YoY (original data).

Private consumption is expected to decline by 0.6% MoM and to increase by 4.7% YoY in January, followed by +0.1% MoM and +3.5% YoY in February 2026, according to INEGI’s Indicador Oportuno del Consumo Privado (IOCP).

Manufacturing activity is expected to contract by 4.6% YoY in February, according to INEGI’s latest IMOAM estimates, reflecting a sharp deterioration from the marginal +0.1% YoY expansion recorded in January 2026.

Economists no longer expect Banxico to cut its key interest rate by 25-bps in the March meeting; they now expect such a move to take place in the May meeting, according to the latest Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. The policy interest rate is projected at 6.50% by YE26 and 6.50% by YE27, both broadly unchanged relative to prior expectations. GDP growth forecasts stand at 1.5% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, unchanged versus the previous survey. Headline inflation is expected at 4.10%, from 4.00%, for 2026, and 3.80%, from 3.78%, for 2027. Core inflation forecasts remained at 4.20% for 2026 and 3.76% for 2027. The peso is projected at 18.35/USD, from 18.18, for YE26, and 19.00, from 18.70 for YE27.

With 359 votes in favor, the Chamber of Deputies approved the Infrastructure Law which is aimed at strengthening investment.

The government has activated tax incentives for regular and premium gasoline (24% and 7.4%, respectively) and strengthened support for diesel (61.8%) over the March 21st to March 27^th period.

The government has imposed a provisional US$0.6315/kg antidumping duty on certain PVC imports from the US, as part of an investigation requested by a subsidiary of Orbia Advance Corporation.

The Mexican Banking Association (ABM) pledged to increase credit penetration to 45% of GDP by 2030, up from the current 39%. This proposal is part of a four-pillar plan, financial education, customer empowerment, financial inclusion/digitalization, and credit expansion, announced during the 89th Banking Convention. The banking sector expects to invest MXN$2.8 trillion (US$158 billion) from now until 2030, in various projects and areas such as technology and infrastructure, with the aim of increasing credit penetration.

CETES auction: 28-day CETES flat at 6.81%; 91-day CETES +9 bps to 7.11%; 175-day CETES +3 bps to 7.28% and 693-day CETES +76 bps to 8.57%.

 Download PDF: Mexican Market Chatter March 12th, March 19th