Mexico Market Chatter, Apr. 1, Apr. 9, 2026
Markets
The S&P / BMV IPC was marginally up (+0.9%) over the last week due to global risk preference following the temporary truce in the Middle East war. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso appreciated 2.8% to close at MXN$17.36/USD; the yield of the 10-year M-Bono was down 8 bps to 9.04%.
The S&P / BMV IPC’s top weekly gainers were: PEÑOLES * (+15.4%), GCARSO A1 (+5.9%), and KOF UBL (+3.8%). On the other hand, the main weekly losers were: GRUMA B (-4.9%), KIMBER A (-3.9%) and TLEVISA CPO (-3.9%).
MexMoves Podcast weekly highlights
Listen to this week’s episode here.
Chinese carmakers still growing in Mexico, as GAC claims it will begin assembling vehicles in Mexico in the second half of 2026.
Telefónica exits but Movistar Mexico (and clients) remain, what the sale of its Mexico business means, and what buyer OXIO may do next.
Banco de México under scrutiny, the debate around Governor Victoria Rodríguez after a critical Bloomberg Opinion column by JP Spinetto and substack by former deputy governor Manuel Sánchez.
And MexMoves Quick Takes on: Sheinbaum’s U-Turn on Fracking; New Infrastructure Law passes; Ricardo Salinas profile in Bloomberg; El Mencho effect on airport and airlines in March.
In the weekly interview, Carlos E. Madrazo, head of Jumex USA, talks about how one of Mexico’s most iconic consumer brands is newly approaching the US market, what lessons travel well from Mexico, what has to change, and why both Hispanic and mainstream US consumers are part of the long-term Grupo Jumex opportunity.
Listed companies
Fibra Prologis launched a revised reciprocal tender offer for up to 100% of Fibra Macquarie’s outstanding CBFIs, at an exchange ratio of 0.525 Fibra Prologis CBFIs for each Fibra Macquarie CBFI, or a cash price equivalent to MXN$44.00 MXN/CBFI per Fibra Macquarie CBFI, up to a maximum total cash amount of MXN$10.52 billion, which is equivalent to 30% of Fibra Macquarie’s outstanding CBFIs as of April 1st, 2026, representing a premium of approximately 21.2% over the volume-weighted average price of the last 60 days as of February 24th, 2026. Meanwhile, Fibra Next and Fibra Mty will seek corporate and regulatory approvals to launch tender offer for Fibra Macquarie.
Grupo Televisa will propose a MXN$7.2 billion capital increase at its April 28th next extraordinary meeting. The company is said to be looking for acquisitions. Meanwhile, TelevisaUnivision, through Univision Communications, launched a cash tender offer for US$1.44 billion in 8.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2028. The tender offer expiration date is May 6th, 2026 at 5:00 PM. The company will finance itself through a US$1.5 billion issuance of 8.875% Senior Secured Notes due 2033 which will close on April 15th.
Volaris shareholders approved the business combination with Viva Aerobus under Grupo Más Vuelos. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals and, if completed, would create Mexico’s largest airline group by passenger traffic. Meanwhile, Volaris reported that total passenger traffic increased 4.5% YoY to 2.7 million in March 2026, reflecting a 1.7% increase in domestic traffic and a 12.7% growth in international traffic. ASMs rose 1.5% YoY, while RPMs grew 1.9%. The load factor improved by 0.3 percentage points to 84.7%.
Telefónica reached an agreement to sell its Mexico operation to Melisa Acquisition, an investor group led by OXIO and Newfoundland Capital Management, for a firm value of US$450 million. The transaction includes 20.8 million active subscriber mobile lines as of 1H25. It remains subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals. Telefónica sold its operations in Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, Peru and Chile throughout 2024 and 2025.
Nemak appointed Hervé Boyer as its new CEO role in substitution of Armando Tamez Martínez. Mr. Boyer has more than 30 years of international experience in senior management and operational leadership roles within the automotive industry.
CFE Capital is exploring a potential CBFE’s issuance in Mexico and international markets for the potential acquisition of an additional stake in the Promoted Trust (owner of collection rights related to the CFE’s electricity transmission activities). No decision has been made to proceed with the Potential Transaction.
Tiendas 3B plans to invest MXN$5.25 billion in 2026, representing a 47% growth, according to the newswires. The company will use 68% of such funds for new stores, 9% to build four new distribution centers and the remainder for renovations, equipment acquisition, and software investments.
Walmart de México expanded its partnership with VusionGroup to deploy AI-based digital shelf solutions across Walmart Express stores, with full implementation expected by year-end 2026.
Femsa’s Tiendas Bara announced a MXN$590 million investment plan for 2026 focused on Guanajuato and Morelia, including 95 new stores and more than 3,000 direct jobs. On the other hand, Femsa’s shareholders approved the payment of an ordinary cash dividend of MXN$4.752/BD unit and an extraordinary cash dividend of MXN$8.0597/BD unit. Both dividends will be paid in four installments in April, July, October and January 2027.
Grupo Aeroméxico’s total passenger traffic declined by 1.4% YoY in March as domestic traffic fell by 1.9% and international traffic decreased by 0.5%. RPM’s increased 1.7% as ASM’s rose 1.0% and the load factor improved 0.6 percentage points to 83.3%.
Asur’ total passenger traffic increased 0.6% YoY to 6.6 million in March. Colombia traffic rose 12.5%, which was partially offset by the declines of 2.4% in Mexico and 2.3% YoY in Puerto Rico.
Gap reported an 8.9% YoY reduction in total passenger traffic to 5.2 million with domestic traffic falling 3.8% and international traffic down 14.6% YoY. Gap issued MXN$10.7 billion in long-term domestic bonds in two tranches. The three-year tranche amounted to MXN$2.77 billion at TIIE +45 bps and the ten-year tranche amounted to MXN7.95 billion at a fixed 9.87%. The company will use proceeds to acquire the remaining 25% stake in Cross Border Xpress and to fund Capex under the 2025-2029 master development program.
Oma registered 2.8% increase in total terminal passenger traffic to 2.4 million in March 2026, with domestic traffic growing 3.9%, and international traffic decreasing 2.8%. Oma raised MXN$1.7 billion in short-term bank loans. The company will use proceeds to repay the MXN$1.0 billion OMA21V bond maturing on April 10th, 2026 and for working capital. The facilities mature in six months and carry a weighted average annual rate of TIIEF plus 59 bps.
Grupo Bafar announced a strategic investment in Ciemsa Foodservice which will allow the former company to consolidate its leading position the the Mexican food sector. The company expects to generate capacity synergies, strengthen its product offering and optimize its logistics network. No amount was provided.
Grupo Televisa announced that Emilio Azcárraga Jean closed the previously announced sale of a minority stake in the company’s series A shares to Bernardo Gómez Martínez and Alfonso de Angoitia Noriega, after complying with regulatory conditions. Meanwhile, Ollamani’s subsidiary Fútbol del Distrito Federal entered into a credit agreement with Banorte for up to MXN$468 million. The company will use proceeds to finance VAT payments related to the remodeling and modernization of Estadio Banorte.
Betterware de México appointed Raúl del Villar as its new CFO, effective April 6th. Raúl del Villar has over 30 years of experience and previously was Grupo Axo’s CFO.
Diablos Rojos will propose a MXN$200 million capital increase. The measure points to balance-sheet reinforcement and potential funding for expansion or operating needs within its sports and entertainment platform.
Fibra Educa has raised a MX$2.5 billion loan with three financial institutions which will allow the trust to strengthen its financial structure and execute the corrective plan.
Fibra Park Life Properties, a rental housing Fibra, listed its certificates through an IPO on BMV, raising MXN$268 million, below the originally targeted MXN$308 million. The initial portfolio will consist of four properties in Mexico City and Querétaro, with a GLA of approximately 20,279 square meters. The growth plan envisions reaching at least 18 properties with more than 1,000 apartments under management over the next three years, which would require approximately MXN$3 billion in capital.
Fibra Inn will propose the creation of a new MXN$250 million CBFI buy back reserve at its April 24th shareholders meeting.
Grupo Acosta Verde (GAV) will challenge a National Antitrust Commission resolution regarding an alleged breach of the Federal Economic Competition Law which imposed sanctions on the company and certain current and former executives.
Grupo Peña Verde announced its intention to repurchase up to 13.5 million shares, equivalent to 2.83% of outstanding shares, at a price of MXN$8.50/share, during the April 9th trading session.
Grupo Rotoplas’ shareholders approved a simple credit agreement for up to MXN$4.0 billion with a seven-year term and extension option, to be executed with Bancomext and potentially other lenders. The company will use proceeds to refinance the AGUA 17-2X certificates, among other purposes.
Other companies
PepsiCo inaugurated a new Sabritas plant in Celaya with more than US$467 million of investment, as part of its broader US$2.0 billion Mexico plan for 2025-2028. The facility adds more than 66,500 tons of annual capacity, created 210 direct and about 800 indirect jobs.
Pernod Ricard appointed Paola Pinto as its CEO for Mexico and the Caribbean-Central America region. Paola Pinto has over 20 years of experience in marketing, business development, and client management. She assumed the role of Division Vice President and General Manager in 2020.
Banco Plata appointed Marcos Kantt as CFO. Mr. Kantt previously worked at Habi, Credit Suisse and Bank of America.
Mexico City’s International Airport increased the passenger airport use fee (TUA) by 2.9% for domestic flights and 3.0% for international flights starting April 1st.
Herbalife signed a definitive agreement to acquire Bioniq assets for US$55 million, which is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.
Netflix will increase prices across all subscription tiers in Mexico, with adjustments of approximately MXN$20, 40 per month depending on the plan. The standard plan with ads will rise to MXN$139, the standard plan without ads to MXN$269, and the premium plan to MXN$369, with the changes expected to be reflected starting mid-April depending on billing cycles.
Xpeng will officially start commercial operations in Mexico on April 6th, initially with the premium electric SUVs G6 and G9. The company targets 2,000 unit sales in 2026 and selected Grupo Andrade, Grupo Solana and Grupo Clever to support sales and after-sales execution in Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey.
Economic
Hacienda expects Mexico’s GDP to grow between 1.8-2.8% in 2026 and 1.9-2.9% in 2027 supported by consumption, employment and public and private consumption, according to the 2027 Pre-Criteria. Hacienda also expects an inflation rate of 3.7% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027; an average FX of MXN$18.0/USD and MXN$18.5/USD; average 28-day CETES rates of 6.7% and 5.9%; a budget deficit of 4.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027; average Mexican mix oil price of US$77.3/barrel and US$54.7/barrel, respectively; average production of 1.794 mbpd and 1,806 mbpd, respectively; and debt as a % of GDP of 55% and 54.7%, respectively.
Mexico’s headline inflation rose 0.86% MoM in March 2026, the highest level since July 2024, but still below the Citi Mexico Expectations Survey consensus projection of 0.90%. Core inflation increased 0.38% (vs. a 0.40% consensus forecast), driven by higher services inflation and non-food prices. The monthly non-core inflation rate rose 2.46%, reflecting sharp increases in fruits and vegetables. On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 4.59% and core inflation at 4.45%.
Banco de México’s March 26th, 2026 minutes indicate that the Board judged it appropriate to continue the easing cycle and reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%, citing weak economic activity, restrictive monetary conditions, and an inflation outlook subject to both upward risks and mitigating slack. Members identified the Middle East conflict as a key source of inflation uncertainty through energy, commodity, and cost channels, although they emphasized that domestic fuel price policies and economic slack would likely contain pass-through effects. Several members stated that inflation pressures from recent shocks are expected to be transitory or mitigated by restrictive policy and anchored expectations, supporting continued normalization of rates under appropriate conditions. The Board communicated that future rate reductions will depend on the evolution of macroeconomic and financial conditions and the behavior of inflation determinants, with explicit reference to assessing the timing and necessity of additional cuts.
The Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP) decreased by 1.6% MoM in seasonally adjusted terms in January 2026, reversing the 1.0% MoM increase of the previous month, according to INEGI. This decline was driven by a contraction in domestically produced goods and services, while imported goods also declined in the period. The IMCP was up 1.5% YoY, according to original data, reflecting increases in both domestic and imported goods and services.
Gross fixed investment decreased by 1.1% MoM (seasonally adjusted) in January 2026, according to INEGI. This decline was primarily driven by a 1.1% contraction in machinery and equipment, while construction spending decreased by 0.8%. Gross fixed investment fell by 3.3% YoY (original data), mainly driven by a 9.8% contraction in machinery and equipment, while construction investment increased by 3.0%.
Formal IMSS affiliated jobs increased by 32,930 in March, bringing the cumulative figure to 207,604 and the last 12-month figure to 259,570. Total IMSS affiliated employees increased 1.2% YoY to 22.7 million.
Remittances increased by 0.4% YoY to US$4.47 billion in February, according to Banco de México. The result reflected 11.3 million transactions, down 3.2% YoY, and an average remittance of US$395, up 3.7% YoY. Cumulative remittances for the first two months of the year declined by 0.5% YoY to US$9.06 billion.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined by 0.3 points MoM to 44.1 pts in March, reflecting weaker perceptions of the country’s current economic situation and reduced willingness to purchase durable goods. The CCI decreased by 2.0 points YoY, driven by a deterioration in assessments of the country’s current and projected economic condition.
The Business Confidence Indicator fell 0.4 pts MoM and 0.9 pts YoY to 48.4 pts in March, accumulating 13 months below the 50-pts level, which indicates contraction, according to INEGI.
Mexico’s trade balance recorded a US$463 million deficit in February, according to INEGI. Exports increased 15.8% YoY to US$56.9 billion, with non-oil exports rising 17.5% YoY and oil exports declining 24.2% YoY. Total imports rose 20.8% YoY to US$57.3 billion, reflecting a 22.6% YoY increase in non-oil imports and a 1.4% YoY contraction in oil imports.
Mexico’s unemployment rate stood at 2.6% in February, compared with 2.5% in January and 2.5% in February 2025. The economically active population reached 61.9 million, while the employed population totaled 60.3 million.
Light vehicle sales increased by 2.4% YoY to 131,569 units in March 2026, INEGI reported. Production rose 2.5% YoY to 343,520 units while exports grew 4.2% YoY to 310,205 units.
Economists now expect Banco de Mexico to cut its reference interest rate by 25-bps in the June meeting (from May in the previous survey), according to the April 7th Citi Mexico Expectations Survey. The policy rate forecast remained unchanged at 6.50% for both YE26 and YE27. GDP growth expectations for 2026 were revised down to 1.4%, from 1.5%, but remained unchanged at 1.8% for 2027. Headline inflation expectations for YE26 increased to 4.23%, from 4.10%, while core inflation was unchanged at 4.20%; for YE27, headline inflation remained at 3.80%, while core inflation increased to 3.79%, from 3.76%. The peso projection strengthened marginally to 18.33 for YE26, from 18.35 previously, and to 18.89 for YE27, from 19.00.
The Senate approved the Infrastructure Law (“Ley para el Fomento de la Inversión en Infraestructura Estratégica para el Desarrollo con Bienestar”), with 84 votes in favor and 28 against.
The Energy Ministry launched a plan to boost domestic natural gas production over the next 10 years. This plan is aimed at increasing the percentage of energy generated from renewable sources from 24% in 2025 to 38% in 2030, and Pemex’s natural gas production from 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2025 to 4.154 billion cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) in 2035, plus an additional 4.156 billion cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) from additional complex geological fields and conventional fields.
Hacienda raised the diesel subsidy to 81%, from 70%, for the April 4th, April 10th week, the highest level since February 2023. It also increased the subsidy for “Magna” regular gasoline to 31%, from 23%, and for Premium gasoline to 18% from 8%. In related news, the Government reached an agreement with various large gasoline providers to cap diesel prices at MXN$28.30/liter.
CETES auction: 28-day CETES -4 bps to 6.60%; 91-day CETES +8 bps to 6.90%; 175-day CETES -13 bps to 7.03% and 679-day CETES -20 bps to 8.37%.
Download PDF: Mexican Market Chatter March April 1st, April 9th, ENG
