The Development of Guidance Strategies in the Mexican Market: Executive Summary

During the last few months, we have been analyzing the earnings guidance strategies of companies listed on the Mexican stock exchanges (BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores) and BIVA (Bolsa Institucional de Valores)). Taking advantage of all the information we gathered, we believe it is worthwhile to study which sectors are the most transparent in terms of guidance. 

As we mentioned in previous editions of this series, the key metrics for each industry (which we would expect to be the metrics included in the guidance strategies) vary from sector to sector. Therefore, best practices on this topic will also depend on the industry. The idea is that companies should publish the most relevant metrics for investors and analysts so that they can accurately forecast earnings and accurately appraise their shares.  

It is important to emphasize that, as always, we only consider earnings guidance to be official when it is properly communicated and numerical (even if it is a range), and not when it is more general commentary regarding the direction the company is taking. As for the sector classification of companies, we followed the definitions of the stock exchanges. 

The following is a summary of progress in the integration of earnings guidance strategies in Mexico: 

Guidance in the Mexican market 

Source: public company materials

Most and least: Categories

Source: public company materials

What can we draw from this? 

• Only 29% of listed companies in Mexico publish formal guidance on results.  
• On average, Mexican companies that do offer estimates publish three metrics. 
• 100% of Food & Beverages, Materials, and Telcos & Media companies update their estimates quarterly. 
• 100% of Consumer Discretionary and Non-Bank Financial companies update their estimates annually. 
• The most popular channels for communicating earnings guidance are quarterly reports (50%) and calls (70%).  
• Virtually no companies communicate their guidance on their website (2%).  
• The guides use both ranges (64%) and point estimates (55%).  
• The sector with the highest percentage of companies with guidance strategies is the Energy sector (although it must be considered that it is a very small sector). It is closely followed by the Transportation sector.  
• There are no companies with performance guidance within the Commercial Supplies and Services (it only has two competitors) and Healthcare sectors. 
• Banks had the most guiding metrics (43%), with an average of eight metrics per company. 

In conclusion, we believe there is ample room for improvement in the Mexican market in terms of guidance strategies. This is due in part because there are still 18 listed companies that offered guidance prior to the pandemic and whom have not re-launched them. We reiterate our view that those who have not launched (or re-launched) formal guidance strategies would benefit from doing so. It is important to always follow all information disclosure regulations and having publicly available earnings guidance helps greatly in keeping in line with these.  

For any company that feels it needs help in defining an earnings guidance strategy upheld to the highest standards, we at Miranda IR would be happy to help.