{"id":19567,"date":"2026-07-29T12:00:31","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T18:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/news-and-content\/miranda-intelligence\/energy-chatter\/mis-mexico-energy-chatter-july-22-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T21:39:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T03:39:29","slug":"mis-mexico-energy-chatter-july-22-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/news-and-content\/miranda-intelligence\/energy-chatter\/mis-mexico-energy-chatter-july-22-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"MI\u2019s Mexico Energy Chatter \u2013 July 22, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Upstream and downstream exposure<\/strong><\/h4>

Oil markets remain on edge as the ceasefire in the Middle East has been unravelling, keeping crude prices elevated and adding to the fiscal strain on the combination of Mexico\u2019s federal government and Pemex, which by freezing domestic fuel prices, are net losers from the conflict.<\/p>

Moody\u2019s published a sector report this week comparing how government policy shapes the credit benefit that high oil prices deliver to Latin America\u2019s national oil companies. Its conclusion: elevated commodity prices and solid operating performance won\u2019t necessarily translate into stronger credit quality, since companies with weaker balance sheets and less diversified revenue absorb policy-related shocks and delayed sovereign payments far less easily than better-capitalised peers.<\/p>

Pemex (B1 stable) comes out worst in the comparison. It is the only company in Moody\u2019s six-name group \u2014 alongside Petrobras, Ecopetrol, YPF, Enap and Petroper\u00fa \u2014 flagged red across all four risk categories: net credit risk, upstream exposure, downstream exposure and intensity of policy intervention.<\/p>

High prices do give Pemex somewhat more room to manoeuvre commercially, as shown by the recent shipment of 1 million barrels to Japan, which arrived on 17 July at Cosmo Oil refineries. But that upside is dwarfed by the fiscal drag for the government on the other side of the ledger, as we\u2019ve covered in previous editions. Hacienda has raised IEPS stimulus payments over the past three weeks; for the 18\u201324 July period, it granted an 8.27% subsidy on Premium petrol and 50.64% on diesel. The result is that federal tax receipts decline as market prices rise, but thin downstream margins mean Pemex can\u2019t recover that value on the sales side.<\/p>

Mexico\u2019s energy sovereignty strategy compounds this. By prioritising domestic refining over crude exports, it cuts Pemex out of the export markets where high prices would otherwise flow straight to the bottom line. Crude exports fell 28% in 2025 to around 581,000 bpd, deepening Pemex\u2019s reliance on structurally weaker downstream margins and high operating costs \u2014 a trend Moody\u2019s data shows worsening steadily since 2022, with operating margin compressed from roughly 25% then to an estimated 5\u201310% by 2027\u201328 before a modest recovery.<\/p>

The contrast Moody\u2019s draws with Petrobras is instructive. Brazil\u2019s NOC generates USD 5 billion in additional operating cash flow for every USD 10\/bbl rise in Brent, and three-quarters of its EBITDA now comes from upstream after cutting refining capacity by roughly 20% \u2014 insulating it from exactly the downstream squeeze that defines Pemex\u2019s problem. Ecopetrol and YPF face their own versions of price-control drag (via Colombia\u2019s FEPC stabilisation fund and Argentina\u2019s ad hoc price freezes respectively), but neither carries Pemex\u2019s combination of high leverage, weak liquidity and total policy exposure.<\/p>

Moody\u2019s projects negative free cash flow for Pemex at least until 2028, cementing dependence on state support: the government provided over USD 40 billion in 2025 and has budgeted roughly USD 14 billion for 2026 \u2014 about 0.7% of GDP \u2014 just to cover near-term maturities.<\/p>

That cash-flow squeeze is already visible further down the payment chain. The Mexican Association of Oilfield Services Companies (AMESPAC), which represents nearly 50 service providers, said this week that Pemex owes its members some 27.24 billion pesos (roughly USD 1.55 billion) and accused the company of \u201cserious irregularities\u201d in its payment processes.<\/p>

In an open letter to President Sheinbaum and the heads of Hacienda, Energy and Economy, plus Pemex chief Juan Carlos Carpio Fragoso, the association said outstanding 2024 invoices \u2014 and even completed work that Pemex has yet to allow its members to formally invoice through its COPADE payment system \u2014 remain unresolved, with 2025 and 2026 obligations only \u201cpartially covered\u201d. AMESPAC warned the uncertainty has severely strained the domestic oil services supply chain and is starting to compromise hydrocarbon production itself. It also flagged that member companies listed on international markets are now obliged to reflect these overdue receivables in their financial disclosures under NYSE, US GAAP and SEC rules.<\/p>

The group is demanding immediate payment of validated 2024 debts, a joint working group with Pemex and federal authorities to reconcile the backlog, and a clear, verifiable mechanism for invoicing and payment going forward.<\/p>

A single vehicle for CFE\u2019s renewables push<\/strong><\/h4>

Mexican financial authorities are exploring a global financing package worth up to 80 billion pesos (roughly USD 4.6 billion) to support renewable energy and storage projects developed jointly with the CFE, Banobras director-general Jorge Alberto Mendoza said. The state development bank and the Finance Ministry (SHCP) are evaluating a \u201csingle financial vehicle\u201d that could channel resources to multiple projects simultaneously, cutting due-diligence costs by leveraging technical evaluations the government has already carried out.<\/p>

The resources would back roughly 30 projects awarded last month to 18 companies \u2014 most of them solar generation \u2014 under the first mixed tender of this kind run by the Sheinbaum administration. Mendoza said Banobras is in talks with institutional investors, Mexican pension funds and banks to structure the financing, aiming to close most of it within 12 months and a significant portion before the end of this year. The scheme would blend public resources with bank and institutional financing. Banobras is also weighing preferential-rate credit for companies that buy machinery, equipment or components manufactured in Mexico, as a way to strengthen domestic supply chains.<\/p>

Mendoza framed this as part of a broader pipeline: the government plans to announce new tenders for power generation, oil, roads and ports over the next six months, all under public-private partnership (PPP) structures. He noted growing investor appetite for PPP-style projects over purely private energy initiatives, arguing that partnering with the government helps mitigate regulatory and legal risk. Large international funds, he said, are looking past the uncertainty created by US trade negotiations and geopolitical risk, wanting to secure a first-mover position in Mexico before that risk premium disappears.<\/p>

CFE responds to Quer\u00e9taro\u2019s strained grid<\/strong><\/h4>

Quer\u00e9taro has become the capital of Mexico\u2019s data centre industry. The state is home to 72% of the country\u2019s installed data centre capacity \u2014 202 MW concentrated in industrial parks across Col\u00f3n, El Marqu\u00e9s and Pedro Escobedo, against a national total of 279 MW, according to the Asociaci\u00f3n Mexicana de Data Centers (MexDC). That dwarfs every other hub in the country: Greater Mexico City holds just 9.8% (27.6 MW), Monterrey 8.6% (24 MW), with Guadalajara, Guanajuato and Yucat\u00e1n trailing further behind.<\/p>

That scale is precisely what makes the state\u2019s electricity problems a national concern rather than a purely local one. In the first half of 2026, Quer\u00e9taro\u2019s Comisi\u00f3n Estatal de Aguas documented 416 electrical faults (a pace already exceeding all of 2025), while the industrial sector logged 165 voltage variations affecting automotive, aerospace and advanced manufacturing firms.<\/p>

The growth of underlying demand explains why the grid is under pressure. Data centres in Quer\u00e9taro currently draw 200\u2013300 MW but that figure could climb to 1,300 MW in the short-to-medium term. MexDC itself is projecting national sector growth to 1,700 MW by 2031, and says the industry is investing USD 550 million in Quer\u00e9taro\u2019s electrical infrastructure alone \u2014 substations and transmission towers that will ultimately be donated to CFE. Under this model, CENACE grants capacity approvals on the condition that operators both build their own infrastructure and separately help fund reinforcement of the national grid, a direct-investment arrangement that differs from the US, where data centres typically contract private power suppliers instead.<\/p>

CFE has responded on multiple fronts with immediate action concentrated on the zones registering the most frequent supply interruptions. On 7 July, CFE brought into operation a new 400 kV transmission line to supply the Odata data centre via the Quer\u00e9taro Potencia substation. That followed a sequence of increasingly senior engagements: a 1 July meeting between Governor Mauricio Kuri and CFE\u2019s state superintendent; Quer\u00e9taro\u2019s participation in CFE\u2019s 29 June national coordination table with 29 states; and, in mid-July, a direct meeting between CFE director-general Emilia Calleja and Kuri. CFE disclosed that it executed 131 distribution projects in Quer\u00e9taro in 2025, worth 475 million pesos and adding 160 MVA of capacity, with three further programmes underway for 2026 covering 65 additional projects, 195 million pesos in investment, and another 30 MVA of incremental capacity.<\/p>

CFE has a transmission plan in place, expanding substations and reinforcing power lines, but those works will roll out gradually given their complexity. This year\u2019s priority is the distribution network instead, where CFE has committed to maintenance, equipment replacement where needed, and direct intervention at the points with the highest incidence of faults. The state government will accompany CFE on field visits to supervise the affected zones and verify that interruptions actually decline. As of 15 July, CFE had begun reorganising personnel to prioritise the most-affected areas while the substation-expansion and transmission-strengthening projects continue in parallel.<\/p>

Quer\u00e9taro\u2019s data centre boom is a genuine economic asset, but the pace of demand growth (potentially quadrupling within a few years) is running ahead of the distribution network\u2019s capacity to keep up, which is why increased investment is vital (and to be fair, seems to be happening, with material help from the data center companies themselves).<\/p>

Risky refinery business<\/strong><\/h4>

On 20 July, Pemex reported a crude oil leak and small fire at a loading pump at the Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas, Tabasco, quickly extinguished with no injuries; the same day, heavy overnight rain flooded drainage at the Salamanca refinery in Guanajuato, triggering a minor fire and one minor worker injury. Both refineries were said to be operating normally.<\/p>

Each incident was contained quickly and without major injury, but the pattern \u2014 fires, unplanned stoppages and emergency maintenance recurring across the national refinery system \u2014 carries a direct, quantifiable cost in asset value, not just an operational one.<\/p>

Pemex\u2019s first-quarter 2026 results recognised a net asset impairment of 14.32 billion pesos, driven by unplanned shutdowns that squeezed margins and disrupted feedstock supply. This is more than double the 5.62 billion pesos recorded a year earlier, pointing to operational problems. Of the total, 12.4 billion pesos was concentrated in the Industrial Processes and Energy Transformation segments; Pemex\u2019s SEC filing attributed it principally to reduced gross margin from unscheduled stoppages and lower feedstock supply.<\/p>

The bottom-line impact: a net loss of 45.99 billion pesos for January-March, up from 43.33 billion a year earlier, with revenue down 29.8 billion pesos, mainly on lower crude exports. Lower costs partially cushioned the blow, but the message is unchanged: refining remains Pemex\u2019s principal point of vulnerability.<\/p>

On a single-month crude-throughput basis, May was bleak: as reported in our last edition, the Sistema Nacional de Refinaci\u00f3n processed 941,158 bpd of crude, down 11.8% from April and the first month below 1 million bpd since August \u2014 a nine-month low. Refined-product output fell 9.1% to 951,166 bpd, with utilisation sliding to 47.5%. Five of seven refineries processed less crude than in April, led by a 52.5% collapse at Minatitl\u00e1n and a 40.2% drop at Salina Cruz after an 11 May fire injured six people. Salamanca was the exception, up 69.1% to 94,216 bpd. That slump followed a strong first quarter, when crude processing had risen 21.9% year-on-year to 1.141 million bpd \u2014 an eleven-year high.<\/p>

However, when looking at cumulative refined-product output averaged from January to May, the plant-level picture changes. On that basis, Tula is Pemex\u2019s most productive refinery, not Salamanca: it averaged 228,500 bpd of refined products over the five months, up 8.5% year-on-year and accounting for a fifth of Pemex\u2019s total refined-product output system-wide. Salina Cruz ranks second and Dos Bocas third, despite both posting a rough May. Salamanca and Madero remain Pemex\u2019s two lowest-output refineries on the five-month average, even after Salamanca\u2019s standout May \u2014 a reminder that a strong single-month rebound doesn\u2019t necessarily change a plant\u2019s underlying ranking if it\u2019s climbing from a very low base.<\/p>

Analyst Rams\u00e9s Pech told Bloomberg L\u00ednea that because Tula\u2019s long-delayed coker unit \u2014 begun in 2014, stalled in 2018, revived with a USD 3 billion L\u00f3pez Obrador-era investment that itself slipped from 2023 \u2014 is now running, it adds 80,000-90,000 bpd of conversion capacity, letting Tula process Maya crude more efficiently into higher-value fuels.<\/p>

However, as long as stoppages keep costing billions of pesos and accidents remain routine, Pemex\u2019s central challenge won\u2019t just be reducing its debt, it will be proving its infrastructure is adequate enough.<\/p>

Slim\u2019s stake<\/strong><\/h4>

Grupo Carso, Carlos Slim\u2019s conglomerate, has reached a binding agreement to acquire TotalEnergies\u2019 30% stake in Block 30, a production-sharing contract in shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico\u2019s Salina del Istmo basin. UK-based Harbour Energy retains the remaining 70% and stays on as operator; closing remains subject to regulatory approval, and neither company has disclosed the transaction value.<\/p>

The block\u2019s principal asset is the KAN field: light oil, wells 3,300-3,750 metres deep, a water depth of 40-50 metres, and a surface area of 30.5 km\u00b2. The contract was awarded by the CNH in April 2018 with a 25-year term. Carso will make the acquisition through Mx Delta NRG 1, a subsidiary of Zamajal \u2014 the group\u2019s hydrocarbons exploration and production arm, 80% owned by Carso and 20% by Control Empresarial de Capitales.<\/p>

The deal extends Slim\u2019s presence in the segments of Mexico\u2019s oil and gas sector that sit outside state control, and comes as Pemex is seeking private partners to reverse declining crude output and shore up its finances (Slim has said this year that his companies would avoid new joint ventures with Pemex). It also follows Carso\u2019s January purchase of Fieldwood Mexico from Russia\u2019s Lukoil, which consolidated full control of two major Gulf fields, and a USD 2 billion contract signed with Pemex last year to drill more than 30 wells at the Ixachi field \u2014 a project Slim has said could roughly double that field\u2019s output to around 200,000 bpd within three years. Other recent moves, including stakes in Talos Energy and US refiner PBF Energy, have already made Carso Pemex\u2019s largest private-sector partner.<\/p>

Slim has forecast that Mexico\u2019s total oil and gas output could reach as much as 2.5 million bpd with private-sector support, well above Pemex\u2019s own April crude and condensate output of 1.65 million bpd.<\/p>

From history-maker to huachicol suspect<\/strong><\/h4>

Another week, another revelation of a major fuel-smuggling network \u2014 each bigger than the last \u2014 with politicians implicated. But politicians from the opposition PAN, not the ruling Morena party.<\/p>

On 16 July federal law enforcement arrested Ernesto Ruffo Appel, Baja California\u2019s PAN governor from long ago 1989 to 1995 and the first opposition governor in modern Mexican history, on suspicion of organised crime and hydrocarbons contraband. Ruffo is majority shareholder of Ingemar, S.A. de C.V., a fuel-import logistics firm he founded in 2018 and formally joined as shareholder and board secretary in 2021. Ingemar\u2019s name surfaced after the July 2025 seizure of 129 rail tank cars in Saltillo and Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila, carrying more than 15 million litres of fuel without valid customs documentation.<\/p>

Attorney General Ernestina Godoy Ramos called it the largest fuel-contraband (huachicol fiscal) network detected to date, with losses to the federal treasury estimated at 4 billion pesos in unpaid taxes between January and July 2025 alone. Prosecutors allege Ruffo and his co-defendants ran the scheme through 11 shell companies, bringing over 18 million litres of diesel and petrol into the country across 163 tank cars declared as additives, oils or waste, or under-reported, to dodge import duties before selling the fuel domestically outside authorised channels.<\/p>

Judge Alejandra Ram\u00edrez de la Vega ordered pre-trial detention on 19 July for Ruffo and four co-defendants, all sent to the Altiplano maximum-security prison; two more remain under house arrest for health reasons, and another was sent to Cereso Nezahualc\u00f3yotl Sur, bringing the total to eight suspects. The formal charging hearing resumed 21 July at Almoloya\u2019s federal criminal justice centre, with a ruling on whether to proceed against Ruffo and four others still pending.<\/p>

Ruffo has filed two amparos \u2014 one against the arrest warrant, filed the day he was detained, and a second alleging due-process violations since. A district judge admitted the latter for review but hasn\u2019t said whether provisional suspension was granted.<\/p>

Ruffo\u2019s defence, led by former PAN interior minister and top criminal lawyer Fernando G\u00f3mez Mont, argues that prosecutors are stretching the concept of criminal responsibility far beyond the available evidence. G\u00f3mez Mont says Ingemar was legally authorised to import fuel and hired the transport company Kevinson, with which it had no prior relationship, to complete the distribution process. While prosecutors allege Kevinson unlawfully brought millions of litres of fuel into Mexico, the defence insists Ruffo was merely a client and had no control over the company, no knowledge of any illegal transport and no direct benefit from it. G\u00f3mez Mont also points out that no Kevinson executive has been detained, even as authorities seek to hold Ruffo responsible for the wider chain.<\/p>

If that account emerges as factually accurate, the case could become a test of the independence of Mexico\u2019s newly reconfigured Morena-friendly judiciary. And of course, opposition figures are asking why no senior Morena politicians have (yet) been apprehended, given that huachicol fiscal appears to have expanded markedly under AMLO\u2019s presidency, and during Morena\u2019s control of most state governorships.<\/p>

The case has mobilised opposition figures: PAN Senator Kenia L\u00f3pez has called Ruffo a \u201cpolitical prisoner,\u201d and former presidents Calder\u00f3n and Fox have defended him. Ruffo had recently joined the newly registered opposition party Somos M\u00e9xico as an advisory council member.<\/p>

The arrest comes as Baja California\u2019s current Morena governor, Marina del Pilar \u00c1vila, faces a scandal of her own. Leaked recordings appear to show her telling contacts she could share information from joint local-federal security meetings to help recover the US visa Washington revoked last year. In the calls, she discusses having met US authorities and voices fear of arrest, extradition, or having her accounts frozen by OFAC. She has since said the calls were solely about restoring her visa, whose revocation Washington has never explained.<\/p>

Morena has pushed back on any suggestion of political persecution, as one would expect. National party president Ariadna Montiel said the FGR investigation ran more than a year and identified at least 25 people tied to fuel trafficking, spanning companies, customs agents and other suspects. She accused the opposition of casting Ruffo as a victim, noting that many of his current defenders had previously demanded a crackdown on huachicol fiscal, insisting the case reflects an independent investigation rather than a smokescreen or political revenge.<\/p>

Chatter Box<\/strong><\/h4>

A new route to Asia?<\/strong>\u00a0Japan has received a roughly one-million-barrel cargo of Mexican crude supplied by Pemex\u2019s trading arm PMI and destined for Cosmo Oil, as Japanese refiners sought to diversify supplies amid heightened disruption and security risks around the Strait of Hormuz. The shipment, which arrived in Yokkaichi on July 17, represents an unusual purchase for a country that sources around 94% of its crude imports from the Middle East. While publicly available information suggests this was a one-off commercial transaction rather than the start of a long-term supply agreement, it underscores the flexibility of Mexico\u2019s export portfolio.<\/p>

Beyond the cargo itself, the shipment illustrates how geopolitical tensions are reshaping global oil trade flows. For Japan, it highlights the search for alternative suppliers; for Mexico, it demonstrates that Pemex continues to find export opportunities in Asia despite the government\u2019s emphasis on domestic refining. Whether this evolves into a recurring commercial relationship remains unclear, but the transaction reinforces Mexico\u2019s potential role as an opportunistic supplier when traditional energy routes come under pressure.<\/p>

CFE\u2019s mixed-investment model faces its first real test.<\/strong>\u00a0Mexico\u2019s new electricity model has moved from regulation to implementation after Polaris Renewable Energy signed the first publicly confirmed mixed-investment agreement under CFE\u2019s new framework. The 30-year contract covers three solar-plus-storage projects in Quintana Roo, Tlaxcala and Sinaloa, representing more than US$217 million in investment. Under the scheme introduced earlier this year, CFE retains majority ownership while private partners provide capital and project development expertise.<\/p>

The agreement is significant because it transforms one of the administration\u2019s flagship energy reforms into a bankable project. While industry reports suggest dozens of projects were awarded under the first bidding round, Polaris remains the clearest example that the model can move beyond policy announcements. The next challenge will be execution: investors will now be watching whether additional projects reach financial close and whether the framework can consistently attract private capital under rules that preserve state control.<\/p>

Charging ahead.\u00a0<\/strong>Mexico\u2019s electric vehicle charging network expanded 17.5% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, reaching more than 60,900 charging connections, according to the latest Electromobility Barometer published by EMA. Public charging infrastructure also continued to grow, with publicly accessible charging positions increasing 27% compared to a year earlier. The figures reflect steady progress as EV adoption accelerates across the country.<\/p>

The headline numbers, however, mask an important reality. Much of Mexico\u2019s charging infrastructure remains concentrated in private, residential and corporate installations, while the public fast-charging network continues to lag behind the pace of vehicle adoption. As electrification gains momentum, expanding publicly accessible charging corridors\u2014and improving transparency on network availability\u2014will become increasingly important for both consumers and power system planning.<\/p>

The solar industry takes the stage.\u00a0<\/strong>Mexico\u2019s solar industry will gather once again at Intersolar Mexico from September 1\u20133 in Mexico City, with organisers expecting more than 300 exhibitors and 10,000 visitors from over 35 countries. The event comes as the country\u2019s renewable sector navigates a new regulatory landscape shaped by CFE\u2019s mixed-investment model, growing battery deployment and renewed attention to distributed generation.<\/p>

This year\u2019s edition arrives at a pivotal moment. Solar deployment continues to expand, while storage is rapidly becoming a core element of new projects rather than an emerging technology. Against a backdrop of transmission bottlenecks and evolving market rules, Intersolar is likely to serve as an important barometer of investor confidence, revealing whether developers and equipment suppliers view Mexico\u2019s new electricity framework as capable of supporting the next phase of renewable investment.<\/p>

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Descargar PDF: Energy Chatter 22-07-26 \u2013 ENG<\/a> Energy Chatter 22-07-26 \u2013 ESP<\/a><\/p>

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