{"id":17176,"date":"2025-08-19T12:14:09","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T18:14:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/?p=17176"},"modified":"2025-08-19T16:23:30","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T22:23:30","slug":"how-did-the-2q25-outlook-affect-companies-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/how-did-the-2q25-outlook-affect-companies-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00f3mo el panorama del 2T25 afect\u00f3 las expectativas de las empresas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"17176\" class=\"elementor elementor-17176\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-1cf0eba elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"1cf0eba\" data-element_type=\"section\" 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data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-39c8add\" data-id=\"39c8add\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-be06e42 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"be06e42\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<style>.elementor-element-be06e42{display:none !important}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-c559d75\" data-id=\"c559d75\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6c7ab52 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6c7ab52\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<style>.elementor-element-6c7ab52{display:none !important}<\/style>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-b493c39 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"b493c39\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-60c98a4\" data-id=\"60c98a4\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b3664cc elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"b3664cc\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>C\u00f3mo el panorama del 2T25 afect\u00f3 las expectativas de las empresas<\/strong><\/p><p>El entorno econ\u00f3mico en M\u00e9xico se volvi\u00f3 m\u00e1s retador durante el segundo trimestre, con un consumo presionado, menor dinamismo industrial y visibilidad limitada en varios sectores. Mientras algunas industrias demostraron resiliencia, otras enfrentaron ajustes operativos y presi\u00f3n en m\u00e1rgenes. En ese contexto, varias compa\u00f1\u00edas que hab\u00edan publicado su gu\u00eda de resultados para 2025 la ajustaron en su reporte del 2T25, mientras que otros la mejoraron o mantuvieron y un grupo importante ni siquiera la mencion\u00f3.<\/p><p>Ajustar la gu\u00eda de resultados debe reflejar una nueva lectura del entorno y, en teor\u00eda, puede ser independiente de si los resultados estuvieron en l\u00ednea con las expectativas del mercado (aunque en la pr\u00e1ctica, casi siempre un resultado muy por debajo lleva a un ajuste a la baja en la gu\u00eda de resultados, y un resultado muy por encima conlleva una revisi\u00f3n al alza). Mantenerla puede transmitir previsibilidad financiera, siempre que sea consistente con los resultados. Sin embargo, revisar la gu\u00eda de resultados sin explicaci\u00f3n genera incertidumbre y, en algunos casos, puede minar la confianza.<\/p><p>La siguiente secci\u00f3n describe c\u00f3mo evolucion\u00f3 la gu\u00eda de resultados tras el 2T25 y lo que significa para los equipos de RI e inversionistas, con base en una muestra de 139 emisoras listadas en BMV y BIVA. Antes de entrar a las cifras, cabe resaltar que el impacto de un cambio en la gu\u00eda de resultados no siempre es directo. La gu\u00eda de resultados puede abarcar una o m\u00e1s m\u00e9tricas (ventas, vol\u00famenes, m\u00e1rgenes, utilidades, flujo de efectivo, capex, capacidad, apalancamiento o simplemente perspectivas), y es clave evaluar el impacto neto de lo que se est\u00e1 midiendo y cambiando. Una compa\u00f1\u00eda puede elevar su estimado de ventas, pero reducir su proyecci\u00f3n de m\u00e1rgenes, o lo contrario. \u00bfEsto es bueno o malo? Un recorte en capex podr\u00eda ser positivo (m\u00e1s flujo de efectivo) o negativo (menor perspectiva de ventas). Por ello, referirse a la \u201cgu\u00eda de resultados\u201d en singular puede resultar enga\u00f1oso.<\/p><ul><li>107 compa\u00f1\u00edas (77.0%) \u00d8<\/li><\/ul><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">No mencionaron gu\u00eda de resultados o no la dieron desde el inicio de a\u00f1o.<\/p><ul><li>17 compa\u00f1\u00edas (12.2%) \u2192<\/li><\/ul><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Mantuvieron su gu\u00eda de resultados:<em> Alfa, Am\u00e9rica M\u00f3vil, Axtel, Banorte, Becle, Cadu, Fibra Mty, Fibra Macquarie, Fibra Nova, Fresnillo, Herdez, Liverpool, Nemak, Orbia, Vesta, Vinte y Walmex.<\/em><\/p><ul><li>1 compa\u00f1\u00eda (0.7%) \u2192<\/li><\/ul><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Public\u00f3 su gu\u00eda de resultados por primera vez en el a\u00f1o: <em>Traxi\u00f3n.<\/em><\/p><ul><li>5 compa\u00f1\u00edas (3.6%) \u2191<\/li><\/ul><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Revisaron su gu\u00eda de resultados al alza: <em>Cemex, Fibra Prologis, Gentera, Vista Energy y Volaris. <\/em><\/p><ul><li>5 compa\u00f1\u00edas (3.6%) \u2193<\/li><\/ul><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Revisaron su gu\u00eda de resultados a la baja: <em>Alpek, BanBaj\u00edo, Bimbo, GCC y Regional.<\/em><\/p><ul><li>4 compa\u00f1\u00edas (2.9%)<\/li><\/ul><p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">No presentaron una gu\u00eda de resultados formal, pero compartieron expectativas para 2025: <em>Bafar, Qu\u00e1litas, Televisa y Viva Aerobus<\/em>.<\/p><p>Las pocas empresas que revisaron al alza lo hicieron respaldadas por fundamentos claros, como mejoras operativas o resultados por encima de lo esperado. Volaris elev\u00f3 su estimado de margen EBITDAR apoyado de los impulsores de los ingresos, mientras Vista Energy ajust\u00f3 sus proyecciones de producci\u00f3n y EBITDA gracias a una transacci\u00f3n reciente y mayor dinamismo en el sector energ\u00e9tico. Tambi\u00e9n destacan ajustes positivos por parte de Fibra Prologis y Gentera, esta \u00faltima respaldada por una mayor rentabilidad en todas sus divisiones y una adquisici\u00f3n estrat\u00e9gica.<\/p><p>En contraste, las revisiones a la baja provinieron de sectores bajo mayor presi\u00f3n en m\u00e1rgenes o con exposici\u00f3n internacional relevante. Bimbo recort\u00f3 sus estimados de ingresos debido a la apreciaci\u00f3n del peso, mientras que Alpek y GCC redujeron expectativas por menores precios y una demanda m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil. Regional y BanBaj\u00edo reportaron resultados por debajo de lo esperado y revisaron de manera significativa su gu\u00eda de resultados a la baja. BanBaj\u00edo tambi\u00e9n baj\u00f3 sus expectativas de crecimiento en M\u00e9xico y prev\u00e9 recortes de tasas m\u00e1s agresivos.<\/p><p>Mantener la gu\u00eda en un trimestre marcado por contrastes tambi\u00e9n env\u00eda un mensaje al mercado. Banorte reafirm\u00f3 sus objetivos respaldados por mejoras en rentabilidad y eficiencia. Walmex mantuvo sus metas pese a una recuperaci\u00f3n del consumo m\u00e1s lenta de lo anticipado. Fibra Mty, Becle y Alfa confirmaron sus objetivos, resaltando la disciplina en la ejecuci\u00f3n y confianza en sus estrategias de largo plazo. Fibra Macquarie y Orbia realizaron ajustes m\u00ednimos: la primera actualiz\u00f3 el peso por AFFO, sin impacto material m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del reporte, mientras que la segunda ampli\u00f3 su rango de tasa efectiva de impuestos en 1%.<\/p><p>Finalmente, de las compa\u00f1\u00edas que compartieron ciertas expectativas sin emitir gu\u00eda formal, Qu\u00e1litas reafirm\u00f3 su perspectiva, subrayando confianza en sus metas financieras estrat\u00e9gicas. Bafar elev\u00f3 sus proyecciones de margen EBITDA. Televisa redujo su expectativa de capex a USD 600 millones desde USD 665 millones, tras negociaciones favorables con proveedores. Viva Aerobus, con coberturas de turbosina y tipo de cambio ajust\u00f3 el porcentaje de su exposici\u00f3n proyectada a 2025 que se encuentra cubierta.<\/p><p>La gu\u00eda de resultados no es una obligaci\u00f3n, pero s\u00ed una herramienta poderosa de comunicaci\u00f3n. M\u00e1s que dar certezas absolutas, se trata de demostrar que hay un rumbo claro y capacidad para adaptarse. En un 2025 que est\u00e1 resultando m\u00e1s desafiante de lo esperado, contar con una narrativa bien estructurada (con o sin gu\u00eda de resultados formal) puede marcar la diferencia en la percepci\u00f3n del mercado.<\/p><p>En Miranda IR, sabemos que una gu\u00eda de resultados solo es \u00fatil si est\u00e1 bien sustentada. Comunicar estimados sin suficiente visibilidad puede ser m\u00e1s perjudicial que no dar ninguno, ya que proyecta una falsa certeza y mina la credibilidad cuando no se cumple. Por eso, ayudamos a nuestros clientes a decidir si realmente es momento de compartir una gu\u00eda, c\u00f3mo hacerlo de forma clara y prudente, y a construir narrativas realistas que conecten el desempe\u00f1o actual con la estrategia de largo plazo.<\/p><p>Para m\u00e1s informaci\u00f3n, puedes escribir a:\u00a0<\/p><p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"mailto:ana.ybarra@miranda-ir.com\">ana.ybarra@miranda-ir.com<\/a><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> o <\/span><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"mailto:damian.fraser@miranda-partners.com\">damian.fraser@miranda-partners.com<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><table><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"2\" width=\"142\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Emisora<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"241\"><p><strong>Original<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Actualizado<\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Alfa<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"29\"><p><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"241\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>Volume growth: 4%<\/em><\/p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>Revenue growth: 10%<\/em><\/p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>EBITDA growth: 5%<\/em><\/p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><em>CAPEX growth: 43%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Am\u00e9rica M\u00f3vil<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>CAPEX: ~MXN$7 billion<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Axtel<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenues: Ps. 12,800 million<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA: Ps. 3,985 million<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US 87 million<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Banorte<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Loan Growth: 8% \u2013 11%<\/em><\/p><p><em>NIM: 6.1% \u2013 6.4%<\/em><\/p><p><em>NIM of Bank: 6.4% \u2013 6.6%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Recurring Expense Growth: 6.0% \u2013 7.0%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Total Expense Growth: 9.0% \u2013 10.5%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Efficiency: 36.0% \u2013 37.5%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Cost of Risk: 1.8% \u2013 2.0%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Tax Rate: 26% \u2013 28%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Net Income: 59.6 \u2013 62.1 bn<\/em><\/p><p><em>ROE: 21.5% \u2013 23.0%<\/em><\/p><p><em>ROE of the Bank: 28.0% \u2013 30.0%<\/em><\/p><p><em>ROA: 2.2% \u2013 2.4%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Becle<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Advertising, Marketing and Promotion (AMP): 20%-22% of Net Sales Value<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>CADU<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenue growth: 5%<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA growth: 5%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Fibra Mty<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Target Distribution (Ps.): 1.047-1.059<\/em><\/p><p><em>Total Yield Distribution: 9.8%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Benchmark: 7.0%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Fibra Nova<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenue growth: 24%<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA margin: 91%<\/em><\/p><p><em>FFO Margin: 80%<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: 1,990 mdp<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"113\"><p><strong>Fresnillo<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Silver production: 49.0-56.0 moz<\/em><\/p><p><em>Gold production: 525.0-580.0 koz<\/em><\/p><p><em>Lead production: 56-62 kt<\/em><\/p><p><em>Zinc production: 93-103 kt<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Herdez<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>CAPEX: MXN1.5 \u2013 MXN2.0 billion<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBIT and EBITDA margins: slightly pressured<\/em><\/p><p><em>2\/3 of net sales growth driven by higher volumes<\/em><\/p><p><em>High-single-digit in Preserves<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"113\"><p><strong>Liverpool<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>EBITDA margin: 16.0% &#8211; 16.5%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Nemak<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Volume: 37-38 M Eq. Units<\/em><\/p><p><em>Revenue: 4.6-4.8 US$ billion<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA: 580-600 US$ million<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: 285-295 US$ million<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Orbia<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>EBITDA: US $1,100-$1,200 million<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US $400 million<\/em><\/p><p><em>Effective tax rate: 27%-31%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>EBITDA: US $1,100-$1,200 million<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US $400 million<\/em><\/p><p><strong><em>Effective tax rate: 27%-32%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Traxi\u00f3n<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenues growth: 14%-16%<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA margin: 16%-17%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Leverage level: 2.2x net debt to EBITDA<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Vesta<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Vesta expects 2025 revenues to increase between<\/em><\/p><p><em>10.0-11.0% with a 94.5% Adjusted NOI margin and an 83.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin, while maintaining the Company\u00b4s solid performance across key operational metrics.<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Vinte<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenue growth: 16.8%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Walmex<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2192<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Sales growth: 6%-7%<\/em><\/p><p><em>New store sales: 1.5%-1.7%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Gross margin: expansion versus prior year<\/em><\/p><p><em>SG&amp;A: single digit increase<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Bafar<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenue growth: 15%<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA growth: 8%<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDA margin: 16%-17%<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: MXN$ 5,000 million<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Revenue growth: 15%<\/em><\/p><p><strong><em>EBITDA growth: 16%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><em>EBITDA margin: 16%-17%<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: MXN$ 5,000 million<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Cemex<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>EBITDA: flat performance<\/em><\/p><p><em>Net interest paid: ~100 million decrease<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>EBITDA: flat performance with potential upside<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Net interest paid: ~125 million decrease<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Fibra Prologis<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>FFO per CBFI Low: US$0.2000<\/em><\/p><p><em>FFO per CBFI High: US$0.2200<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>FFO per CBFI Low: US$0.2200<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>FFO per CBFI High: US$0.2400<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Gentera<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Loan Portfolio: 13%-16%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Earnings per Share: $4.55-$4.70<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Loan Portfolio: 13%-16%<\/em><\/p><p><strong><em>Earnings Per Share: $5.00-$5.15<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Televisa<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>CAPEX target 2025: US$665 million<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>CAPEX target 2025: US$600 million<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Vista Energy<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Production: 112-114 Mboe\/d<\/em><\/p><p><em>Adj. EBITDA: 1.5-1.6 $Bn<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>Production: 125-128 Mboe\/d<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Adj. EBITDA: 1.65-1.85 $Bn<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Viva Aerobus<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Jet fuel hedging: 48.4% of expected 2025 consumption\u00a0 <\/em><\/p><p><em>FX hedging: 28.7% of projected 2025 exposure<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>Jet fuel hedging: 48.3% of expected 2025 consumption\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>FX hedging: 64.9% of projected 2025 exposure<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"113\"><p><strong>Volaris<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2191<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>ASM growth (YoY): 8%-9%<\/em><\/p><p><em>EBITDAR Margin: 24%-25%<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US$ 250 millions<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>ASM Growth (YoY): 7%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>EBITDAR Margin: 32%-33%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US$ 250 millions<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Alpek<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>China PTA\/PET: US$\/Ton 160<\/em><\/p><p><em>Comparable EBITDA: US$M 625<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US$M 150<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>China PTA\/PET: US$\/Ton 140-150<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Comparable EBITDA: US$M 525-575<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>CAPEX: US$M 130-150<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>BanBaj\u00edo<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Loan Growth: 8%-11%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Deposits Growth: 9%-11%<\/em><\/p><p><em>NIM: 6.2%-6.3%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Expenses Growth: 10%-12%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Efficiency Ratio: 39%-41%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Cost of Risk: 0.8%-1.0%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Effective Tax Rate: 26.5%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Net Income (Ps. <\/em><em>Million): $9,300-$9,800<\/em><\/p><p><em>ROAE: 19.5%-21.0%<\/em><\/p><p><em>NPL Ratio: Below 1.6%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Banxico end of period Rate: 8.00% &#8211; 8.25%<\/em><\/p><p><em>GDP Growth: 1%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>Loan Growth: 5%-6%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Deposits Growth: 6%-9%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>NIM: 6.0%-6.1%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Expenses Growth: 8%-10%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Efficiency Ratio: 40%-42%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Cost of Risk: 1.0%-1.1%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><em>Effective Tax Rate: 26.5%<\/em><\/p><p><strong><em>Net Income (Ps. <\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Million): $8,500-$8,800<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>ROAE: 18.5%-19.5%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>NPL Ratio: Below 1.9%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Banxico end of period Rate: 7.00% &#8211; 7.25%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>GDP Growth: 0%<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td style=\"text-align: center;\" width=\"113\"><p><strong>Bimbo<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Net sales: High single-digit growth<\/em><\/p><p><em>Adj. EBITDA: Mid single-digit growth<\/em><\/p><p><em>CAPEX: US$1.4-1.5Bn<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>Net sales: Mid single-digit growth<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Adj. EBITDA: Low to Mid single-digit growth. Flat to slight margin contraction<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>CAPEX: US$1.3-1.4Bn<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Fibra Macquarie<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Average exchange rate of Ps. 20.50 per US dollar for the remainder of 2025<\/em><\/p><p><em>No new acquisitions or divestments<\/em><\/p><p><em>No issuances or repurchases of certificates<\/em><\/p><p><em>No deterioration in broader economic and market conditions, including the potential implementation of tariffs or deterioration in the trade relationship with key trading partners<\/em><\/p><p><em>AFFO per certificate guidance of Ps. 2.95 to Ps. 3.05<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>Average exchange rate of Ps. 18.50 per US dollar for the remainder of 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><em>No new acquisitions or divestments<\/em><\/p><p><em>No issuances or repurchases of certificates<\/em><\/p><p><em>No deterioration in broader economic and market conditions, including the potential implementation of tariffs or deterioration in the trade relationship with key trading partners<\/em><\/p><p><strong><em>AFFO per certificate guidance of Ps. 2.80 to Ps. 2.85<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Grupo Cementos Chihuahua<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>EBITDA growth: Mid-single digit decrease<\/em><\/p><p><em>Total CAPEX: US$470M<\/em><\/p><p><em>Strategic &amp; Growth: US$400M<\/em><\/p><p><em>Maintenance: US$70M<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><strong><em>EBITDA growth: Mid-single digit decrease<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Total CAPEX: US$400M<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Strategic &amp; Growth: US$330M<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><strong><em>Maintenance: US$70M<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/td><\/tr><tr><td width=\"113\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Regional<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"29\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2193<\/strong><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Total Loan Growth: 10%-15%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Core Deposits Growth: 10%-15%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Net Income Growth: 10%-15%<\/em><\/p><p><em>ROAE: 20%-21%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Cost of Risk: 0.7%-0.9%<\/em><\/p><\/td><td width=\"241\"><p><em>Total Loan Growth: 7%-10%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Core Deposits Growth: 7%-10%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Net Income Growth: 5%-10%<\/em><\/p><p><em>ROAE: 19%-20%<\/em><\/p><p><em>Cost of Risk: 0.8%-1.0%<\/em><\/p><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-96141a8 elementor-widget-divider--view-line elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"96141a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-bbeceb3 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"bbeceb3\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Contactos en Miranda Partners<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-section elementor-inner-section elementor-element elementor-element-bb93f92 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"bb93f92\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-54621ca\" data-id=\"54621ca\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-460a9b5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"460a9b5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>Damian Fraser<\/strong><br \/>Miranda Partners<br \/><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"mailto:damian.fraser@miranda-partners.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">damian.fraser@miranda-partners.com<\/a><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-50 elementor-inner-column elementor-element elementor-element-c0506da\" data-id=\"c0506da\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d007a8a elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d007a8a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-no-translation=\"\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><b>Ana Mar\u00eda Ybarra Corcuera<\/b><br \/>Miranda-IR<br \/><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"mailto:ana.ybarra@miranda-ir.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ana.ybarra@miranda-ir.com<\/a><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What would be the best IR practices to handle if something out of your control threatens your business?&#8230;<\/p>","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":17112,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-miranda-ir"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17176","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17176"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17176\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17228,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17176\/revisions\/17228"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17176"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17176"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/miranda-partners.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17176"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}